COP31’s ‘35 by 35’ electrification push only works if grids get cleaner

The story

COP31 begins in Antalya with an unusually concrete energy benchmark: make electricity 35% of global final energy consumption by 2035. The presidency’s ‘35 by 35’ pledge turns electrification from a broad aspiration into a number that can be tracked across transport, buildings and industry. But the benchmark is not itself a guarantee of lower emissions. Its climate value depends on what generates the additional electricity and whether clean supply replaces, rather than merely supplements, fossil fuels.

The proposed change is steep. Electricity supplied almost 24% of global final energy in 2023, according to analysis by Climate Action Tracker. Its review of the COP31 initiative finds that current policies would lift the share to about 28% in 2035, leaving a seven-percentage-point gap. Reaching 35% would require the annual rate of electrification to accelerate nearly fourfold compared with the historical pace since 2000.

That acceleration is technically meaningful because many electric machines use energy more efficiently than combustion alternatives. Climate Action Tracker estimates that a battery-electric car converts about 90% of its energy input into motion, against roughly 25% for a petrol vehicle. Heat pumps similarly move more heat than the electrical energy they consume. The group calculates that a 35% electricity share could correspond to roughly two-thirds of relevant technologies or energy services being electrified once those efficiency gains are considered.

The COP31 pledge says the target should be supported by sustainable energy sources, storage, flexible systems and modern grids. It also sits beside the COP28 goals of tripling renewable capacity and doubling the rate of energy-efficiency improvement by 2030. For now, however, it belongs to the voluntary action agenda. Climate Action Tracker says the Turkish and Australian conference leadership is seeking to bring the target into the formal COP31 cover decision, which would give it wider political weight but still require national implementation.

Türkiye’s National Energy 2040 plan, released days before the summit, demonstrates both the ambition and the ambiguity. The Energy Ministry says the country will seek 36% electrification by 2040 and invest $500 billion across public and private projects. Installed power capacity would rise from 123 gigawatts in 2025 to 281 gigawatts, while renewables would increase from 63% to 77% of installed capacity. The plan calls for $36 billion in transmission investment, expanding high-voltage lines from about 77,000 to 112,000 kilometres, plus 140 gigawatt-hours of storage and 15 gigawatts of cross-border interconnection.

Demand is also expected to change. Türkiye projects a combined electric and hybrid fleet of 20 million vehicles by 2040, alongside new loads from data centres, heat pumps, green hydrogen and water treatment. The ministry says these changes, combined with cleaner generation, could reduce emissions by 40%. That is the industrial logic behind the global pledge: electrification shifts spending from imported fuel toward power plants, networks, software, batteries and electric equipment that can increasingly run on domestic low-carbon energy.

The contradiction is that electrification can coexist with a carbon-intensive grid. The Associated Press reports that coal supplied 33% of Türkiye’s electricity last year, while wind and solar produced nearly 23%. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said the country needs coal for security of supply even as it seeks a just transition, and the national plan also aims to satisfy domestic oil and gas demand through expanded production. Nuclear capacity is expected to reach 10 gigawatts and provide 11% of electricity in 2040.

Climate Action Tracker warns that the 35% ratio records an energy carrier, not its carbon intensity. A country could raise electricity’s share by running more coal or gas plants, extending their lives as demand grows. Conversely, it could build a cleaner grid while leaving oil in cars and gas in buildings. A credible implementation plan therefore needs at least three linked ledgers: the share of end uses converted to electricity, the emissions intensity of power generation and the amount of fossil-fuel consumption actually displaced.

INNOVOX analysis: ‘35 by 35’ is useful because it connects clean generation to the machines that consume energy. Renewable targets alone do not ensure that cars, furnaces and boilers stop burning fuel. The new benchmark can expose whether grids, charging, storage and industrial equipment are being built quickly enough to make that switch. Yet it will become a loophole if governments report a rising electricity share without publishing the generation mix, network investment, affordability and fossil retirements behind it.

The test at COP31 is whether governments convert a memorable slogan into compatible national plans and finance. Watch for signatories, a possible reference in the cover decision and commitments that pair electrification with clean power, stronger grids and storage. The most valuable reporting would show annual progress using a common definition of final energy, alongside power-sector carbon intensity and sector-by-sector adoption. That would reveal whether 35% represents a genuine energy transition or simply a larger electricity system layered on top of the old one.

INNOVOX analysis

The pledge creates a measurable demand-side counterpart to renewable-capacity goals, but its headline ratio is not a decarbonisation metric. Electric vehicles, heat pumps and industrial equipment cut emissions only to the extent that generation, grids and storage become cleaner fast enough to serve them. Türkiye’s own plan shows the scale of investment—and the political temptation to count electrification while preserving fossil supply.

What to watch

Watch which countries sign the pledge, whether negotiators place it in the COP31 cover decision, and whether implementation plans pair the 35% benchmark with clean-power, grid, storage and fossil-fuel displacement measures. Annual reporting must also use a consistent definition of total final energy consumption.